Building in public
I'm building an agent
to try to beat the S&P 500.
This is the public notebook of how I build it: an agent that combines markets, fundamentals, geopolitics, and investor sentiment to propose a real portfolio. I explain every decision here before I make it.
Methodology
Two environments, one analysis
I read every asset through two lenses that I later combine to reach a target price and a probability. Exactly how I'll combine them is still being defined (I'll explain it in Phase 1), but these are the two starting lenses:
Economic
Geopolitics, macro, and fundamentals
The terrain: the global landscape, central banks, and each company's fundamentals, which I calculate myself from their original annual reports, never from third parties.
Human
The market's mood
Crowd psychology: euphoria, fear, panic, FOMO. I cross it with what's said in forums, social media, and public analysis, without taking it as absolute truth.
The path
Five phases, each closed before the next opens
Phase 0 — The website
I'm building this very site: the public throughline of the whole project. In progress.
Phase 1 — Context
I study letters from great investors and market literature to build my own judgment.
Phase 2 — Testing
I test each capability separately, then all together.
Phase 3 — Demo
I operate with real data and markets, with a still-simulated portfolio.
Final Phase — Live
Real portfolio. The agent only recommends; I execute every trade myself.
Explore
The project's four sections
Context
Who I am and why I'm building this.
Macro & geopolitical overview
The economic and geopolitical terrain I invest in.
Blog
The project's progress, week by week, archived without losing anything.
Portfolio
The dashboard of my real portfolio, always in percentages.